Less than 20 humanoid developers will have real applications by 2028
2 February 2026 
Fewer than 100 humanoid robot developers will progress beyond experimenting with proof-of-concepts by 2028, with 20 or less using them in real manufacturing and in supply chain applications, according to the business and technology insights company, Gartner.
It suggests that “the hype surrounding humanoid robots is outpacing their readiness for large-scale deployment,” and predicts that by 2028 most production deployments of humanoid robots will be limited to tightly controlled environments, rather than dynamic, high-throughput operations.
“The promise of humanoid robots is compelling, but the reality is that the technology remains immature and far from meeting expectations for versatility and cost-effectiveness,” says Abdil Tunca, a senior principal analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice. “CSCOs (chief supply chain officers) must carefully evaluate readiness and avoid overcommitting resources to solutions that cannot yet deliver on their potential.”
Although humanoid robots that replicate human shapes and movements, and incorporate heads, arms and legs, might offer some advantages, Gartner suggests that alternative designs – such as “polyfunctional” robots equipped with wheels or sensors in unconventional placements – may provide superior performance and adaptability.
Humanoid robots, it argues, face significant barriers to adoption, including:
- Technological limitations Current models lack the dexterity, intelligence and adaptability required for complex, unstructured environments such as mixed-SKU picking, trailer unloading or exception handling in high-velocity warehouses.
- Integration complexity Compatibility with existing systems and workflows remains a challenge.
- High costs Substantial upfront investments and maintenance costs need to be weighed against uncertain returns. With the current technology and costs, humanoids cost multiple times more than task-specific polyfunctional robots while delivering lower throughput and uptime.
- Energy constraints Limited battery life restricts operational time for high-mobility tasks.
Unlike humanoids, polyfunctional robots are optimised for flexibility without being constrained by human-like design. For example, a polyfunctional robot with wheels and a telescopic arm can move boxes, pick cases, scan inventory and perform inspections, usually with higher uptime and using less energy than a humanoid attempting the same tasks. Polyfunctional robots can incorporate functions that enhance their efficiency and durability, making them better suited for dynamic environments.
“Companies with a high risk appetite and focus on innovation are the best candidates for pursuing humanoid robots at present, given the unproven capabilities of these solutions, and related lack of clarity for return-on-investment,” says Caleb Thomson, a senior director analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice. “For the majority of companies that will need to prioritise robots that maximise throughput-per-dollar invested, we expect polyfunctional robots to be the superior solution.”
Gartner is advising CSCOs to:
- Pursue pilot programs to validate the feasibility of humanoid robots before committing to full-scale deployment.
- Collaborate with emerging providers to influence their product development and align their technologies with operational needs.
- Implement continuous monitoring to track performance and guide iterative improvements.
- Foster a culture of innovation that supports experimentation and calculated risk-taking.
- Prioritise outcome-driven automation that targets specific bottlenecks, rather than generalised “headcount reduction” strategies, which is also less risky from an investment standpoint
